Sezibera’s Rise, Gen Kabarebe Removal: Inside the Rwanda-Uganda Rift

After Uganda’s relations with Rwanda worsened two years ago, recent developments and concerted diplomatic efforts have raised hope the on-and-off relationship could be brought back on track. The two countries in May nearly came to a full-scale military conflict following a rapid deterioration of relations. Rwanda’s then Defence Minister Gen James Kabarebe was quoted as telling his countrymen to stop “scavenging” in Uganda. In some other fora, Kabarebe described Uganda as an “enemy country,” accusations he later vehemently denied. Ugandans occupying top public and private offices had their employment contracts terminated. Correspondences lost a diplomatic tone as informal intermediaries flew in and out of Kigali and Kampala. On the other hand, Ugandan military intelligence personnel raided homes of suspected Rwandan agents, throwing them behind bars. Other victims claimed torture, claims the army dismissed. While the Rwandan envoy to Uganda, Retired Major General Frank Mugambage protested the arrests and “illegal detentions” of his people, security services here in Kampala maintained they were carrying out a crackdown on an espionage racket whose bill was footed by the intelligence apparatus in Kigali. Amb Mugambage further condemned “the failure to investigate incidents brought to your (Uganda) attention involving terrorists” which he said was a matter of deep concern to Kigali. He said some terrorist groups targeting Rwanda had found a safe haven in Uganda and continued to use the country to recruit members enroute to DRC. Yet, the Rwandan government was suspected of funnelling logistical support to militant groups in DRC seeking the overthrow of President Museveni. Tension mounted with Uganda reinforcing its military positions along the western front to stop a possible assault of armed rebels from Eastern DRC. It’s understood Uganda received intelligence showing the terrorist Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) had laid hundreds of landmines and prepared ambush positions in North Kivu to surprise the invading UPDF force. “We could have sent in our Special Forces Operators to clear the mines, but our leaders decided to use long range weapons,” said a senior official briefed about the secret mission that left many bewildered during the 2017 festive season. “It was a mission that had been carefully planned by our finest military strategists, combat operations commanders and experienced Generals. We were ready to move deep inside.” With the border threat contained, a clampdown of suspected Rwandan spies ensued. There was fear at the time Rwanda wanted to ignite and finance popular opposition protests to overwhelm security forces on Kampala streets. This domestic political crisis and staggering foreign security threats underscored just how hard it was to restore constructive ties between Uganda and Rwanda. While the two sides were facing off this week over a myriad of issues, the prospect of renewed chemistry appeared problematic. Silver lining But now, officials and experts said, the appointment of Foreign Affairs Minister Dr Richard Sezibera could breathe new life in the two countries’ relations. If it does not immediately restore ties, the appointment could at least pave the way for the resuscitation of talks between President Museveni and Kagame. Andrew Mwenda, an influential opinion leader and personal friend of President Kagame, says “Sezibera was the best candidate after Louis Mushikwabo because he is smart, diplomatic and experienced.” Mwenda, a distinguished journalist with extensive experience in regional politics, further stated that Sezibera “would therefore be the right person to engage regional and international leaders, articulate Rwanda’s position and win their confidence.” Sezibera, who previously served as Rwanda’s Ambassador to United States and East African Community Secretary General, worked well with Uganda especially during his stint at Arusha. “He was very smooth,” recalls Mwenda. But experts are calling for caution, saying there is little to read from Sezibera’s appointment. Dr Golooba Mutebi, a respected researcher and opinion leader, said “a new foreign affairs Minister had to be found” after Mushikiwabo was appointed Secretary General of Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie. Golooba said Sezibera was “the most experienced” among his colleagues and had been “mentioned as the best candidate” for the job. The analyst said it remains to be seen if the rise of Sezibera will help matters as he serves a government that must pursue its own interests. “Both Sezibera and Kutesa are serving presidents and governments which have interests. They can do whatever they can but the capacity to retain relations goes beyond individuals,” he observed. Last week, President Museveni dispatched Foreign Affairs Minister Sam Kutesa as a “special envoy” to deliver a letter to President Kagame. A diplomat told us that a ‘special envoy’ in the diplomatic sense is the “highest level of bilateral engagement second to only a summit.” While the message carried by Kutesa was about the Great Lakes region, the body language of the powerful Ugandan Minister, Sezibera and Kagame in Kigali reflected good relations. A Ugandan diplomat told us on condition of anonymity that he is not sure if Sezibera’s appointment “was aimed specifically at us but it doesn’t complicate matters at all.” On his part, Mwenda said “If there is anything I would read is that Richard (Sezibera) is one of the best suited to argue Rwanda’s case against Uganda to the world.” Issues Golooba said from his own reading “things haven’t been solved yet. Last week, I read somewhere that someone (Rwandan) was plucked from Akamba bus enroute to Nairobi.” He said if it’s true that arrests of Rwandans haven’t stopped then Uganda’s concerns that Rwandans have spies are yet to evaporate. ChimpReports understands several Rwandans have been picked by security services from the bus parks in downtown Kampala but couldn’t obtain facts on the alleged recent incident. Golooba said unless he obtains sufficient evidence of what came out of Kutesa’s meeting with Kagame, “I am going to remain open-minded.” Some of Rwanda’s concerns were Uganda’s failure to extend power lines and internet fibre to its border which officials say have been addressed. Speaking during the Northern Corridor Summit in Nairobi this June, Museveni revealed: “On the electricity line to Rwanda through Mirama Hills, the project is 75 percent complete and will be fully operational by this October.” The President, who challenged technocrats to pay attention to this Victoria-Kagera water project, said it had the possibility of causing exploitation of iron ore in the area. “A good water transport system would help this project of steel which currently cannot take off because of cost. We have no coal in Uganda but there is abundant gas in Rwanda in Lake Kivu. Subsequent meetings should look at integrating these sectors,” said the President. PS Speaks out Uganda’s Foreign Affairs Ministry Permanent Secretary Amb James Mugoya had kind words for Sezibera, saying he is a “very experienced” diplomat who as a former EAC SG “understands issues of the region.” Asked if Sezibera worked well with Uganda, Mugoya responded: “Of course. As an EAC SG, you are a civil servant employed by the region. You work for the community.” Pressed to speak on arrests of Rwandans in Uganda, Mugoya said “those who were arrested, there was a reason.” He, however, said “Uganda and Rwanda are neighbours who have to find ways of living together as neighbours in harmony.” The soft-spoken but assertive diplomat went on to say diplomatic mechanisms will continue to be put to good use to “resolve issues in a brotherly and good neighbourliness manner.” A Rwandan diplomat on Wednesday told us: “There is hope that things will get better but some suspicion remains. Rwandans who would come to Kampala to enjoy the nightlife are yet to be convinced that all is well.” The diplomat, who is not authorised to speak to the media, emphasised: “There is still an element of fear. Generally, people still need reassurance of good ties. Most Rwandan traders buy their commodities from Kampala. It’s their main trade destination.” Uganda Exports to Rwanda was US$181.64 Million during 2017, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. The chart below shows a trade boom of more than $240m in 2014 before collapsing to $180m in 2017. Rwandans official say cases of Rwandans being arrested in Uganda “are progressing well” with relatives being allowed to visit their dear ones and also obtain legal representation. Kabarebe saga ChimpReports understands former Minister James Kabarebe’s derogatory comments shocked many Ugandan officials as he was born, raised and educated from Uganda. Some of his family members live in Ibanda, Western Uganda. Kabarebe was recently moved in a reshuffle to Senior Defence and Security Advisor at the president’s office. This, at first was interpreted as a good gesture on the part of Kagame to remove a controversial official from the position of defence ministry. But Golooba says unlike in Uganda, an official in Rwanda can’t make controversial comments reflecting his personal opinion without facing punitive action. “They would have moved on him (Kabarebe),” said Golooba. “An official in Rwandan can’t make such random comments… and retain his job.” Golooba seemed to suggest that Kabarebe’s transfer was not a demotion but possibly a move to bring him closer to the president to focus on security matters. He said at the Defence Ministry, Kabarebe was more preoccupied with administration and policy matters hence the need to trim down his work. But Mwenda said he would be inclined to agree with the assertion that Kabarebe was among the few remaining old guards in the establishment as the youthful guard moves to run the show. Personal Issues A senior defence official in Uganda told ChimpReports, “The people of Uganda and Rwanda have no serious issues. There is really no problem. It’s just the officials who have issues.” A Rwandan opposition figure who was using the Ugandan territory to attack Rwanda in the media and also allegedly facilitate recruitment of dissidents was told to return to a Scandinavian country. While the future of Uganda-Rwanda ties had appeared more uncertain, every cloud has a silver lining. While diplomats are working hard to restore the ties, the ball remains in the court of the two countries’ leaders. “From my experience,” said Mwenda, “relations between Uganda and Rwanda can only be solved by Museveni and Kagame, not intermediaries.”

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