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Analysis: Why M7 Night At Odinga’s Home Isolates Besigye

dosage http://consultants-lactation.org/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-terms-list-table.php geneva; font-size: small;”>Museveni spent his night at the Kenyan Presidential hopeful’s home where the pair discussed issues that affect the region.

viagra order http://cloudninerealtime.com/wp-content/plugins/contact-form-7/admin/includes/welcome-panel.php geneva; font-size: small;”>While the gist of the discussion is yet to be known, the schmoozing of the two politicians will surely cement the relationship between Uganda’s ruling party and Kenya’s next President and isolate Col. Kizza Besigye.

Observers say Odinga is likely to sweep Kenya’s elections expected either in December or March next year.

Odinga was last year in Eastern Uganda campaigning for Museveni. The trip to Kenya has since been perceived as a move to payback Odinga by drumming up support for his presidential bid.

Earlier, before contributing Shs224m for the Great Lakes Region University Fund, Museveni and Odinga were chauffeured in an open-roof car. The two leaders had to make several stop-overs by the thick crowds to address them.

The crowds were visibly excited by the Ugandan leader’s long motorcade.

As Museveni passed through the town, hundreds of people, some on roof tops and others on the streets, warmly welcomed him and his host Odinga.

Museveni is also expected to provide special funding for Odinga’s campaigns, according to highly placed government officials.

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BESIGYE

Political pundits say Museveni is wooing Odinga and Rwanda President Paul Kagame to isolate opposition leader Col. Kizza Besigye.

In the late 2000s, Besigye had managed to attract the support of Kagame and Odinga who were secretly bankrolling his political activities aimed at removing Museveni from power.

Realizing how strategic Besigye was, Museveni embarked on a serious diplomatic move to strip Besigye of the support from the two politicians.

No wonder when Besigye appealed to Kagame for 2011 election campaign cash, Kigali turned a deaf ear.

You will also recall that Museveni managed to capture power because of the support of Tanzania’s President Julius Nyerere who provided arms, soldiers, intelligence, cash, food and political support to weaken Amin and Obote.

With this in mind, Museveni is very sure that if Besigye got billions of shillings from any neighbouring President, his hold on power would be threatened as it happened in 2001 and 2006.

In 2001, according to a State House research official, all indications were that Besigye would sweep the election as billions poured in from all corners of the world especially Rwanda and considering that one of the main determinants of an election outcome in Uganda is money.

At the time, Besigye’s funds from Kagame were being managed by fallen former Bank of Uganda Governor Suleiman Kiggundu.

The well-funded campaigns scared Museveni who was left with no option but arrest Besigye on trumped up charges of rape and treason. As he battled cases in court, Museveni was busy campaigning across the country and at times using helicopters.

As an English author once noted; “If you can’t go around it, over it, or through it, you had better negotiate with it.”

That’s why Museveni was compelled to improve his relationship with Rwanda’s Kagame.

Kagame nowadays openly confesses how he is in bed with Museveni and relations between Kigali and Kampala are “on the right track.”

The likes of Col. Samson Mande, who was being facilitated by Kagame to destablise Uganda, are now in the cold; of course unhappy with the blossoming love between Kagame and Museveni.

Like Albert Einstein, Museveni knows politics is far more complicated than physics.

When Besigye shook his power in 2001, Museveni started playing political games to isolate his former physician and fruits of the President’s effort have started showing.

Museveni had to surround his country with friendly Presidents.

He helped in installing S. Sudan president Salva Kiir and managed to support Mwai Kibaki to defeat panga-wielding militias in the 2007 post election violence and pacifying Somalia using UPDF troops.

As all this happened, Museveni sent emissaries to Kagame for reconciliation.

Therefore, Museveni can now go to bed and rest without leaving one eye open given that Besigye’s regional support has been trimmed.

BAD NEWS FOR BESIGYE

And unfortunately for FDC, its envoys are yet to register any successes in wooing regional leaders to openly support their cause.

This diplomatic isolation has left Besigy’e supporters morally weakened and hopeless for regime change, one of the reasons why opposition-inspired demonstrations do not stand the test of time.

Besigye now relies on UK Premier David Cameron’s covert support. But the powerful Premier has never openly confessed his support for Besigye, a move that would have energyised the hoarse-voiced opposition leaders’ grass root supporters.

In fact a statement by Cameron declaring his unreserved support for Besigye would among other factors embolden the latter’s supporters to kick start and even sustain a revolution.

A few months ago, Russia accused US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton of “provoking anti-Putin demonstrations” when she said Vladimir Putin must respect Russians’ right to assemble and challenge his power.

Like any other political setting with millions of folks craving for change, Besigye’s supporters want to hear from the world’s powerful leaders such as Barrack Obama, Cameron, Angela Merkel, Hu Jintao pledging their support for the Rukungiri-born politician.

They also want assurance that in case Besigye captured power, Museveni’s sympathizers would not overthrow him.

However, opposition fanatics were further demoralized when none of world’s strong leaders condemned government when Besigye was brutally attacked last May at Mulago round-about by security officers.

BESIGYE ODINGA RELATIONS

Lest I forget, it’s very surprising that Besigye fell short of wooing Odinga’s support despite Museveni reportedly sending Special Forces to crush the 2007 post election resistance against Kibaki.

That aside, Museveni was also one of the first among regional Presidents to congratulate Kibaki upon re-election in a hugely disputed election.

Museveni was behaving in a way which was wisely put by Harry S. Truman that “Within the first few months I discovered that being president is like riding a tiger. A man has to keep riding or be swallowed.”

Museveni knew the consequences of having his enemy Odinga as Kenya’s leader. He had to consolidate Kibaki’s stay as he negotiated with Odinga.

In 2009, FDC tried to exploit the bad blood between Odinga and Museveni. They organized an event in Kampala where Odinga was expected to address the gathering as guest of honour.

Interestingly, the Kenya president-in-waiting called off his Uganda trip at the last minute, leaving FDC in the cold.

It later emerged that after steady political maneuvering, Museveni convinced Odinga to shun the event as he would support his Kenya presidential bid.

Besigye was left to lick his wounds despite heavily publicising the event.

The last time Besigye and Odinga met was last May when the former was being hospitalized at Nairobi Hospital.

It was a Tuesday. Odinga had initially been expected to visit Besigye on a Saturday but cancelled the move since it was the same day on which Museveni was addressing a business summit in Nairobi.

Odinga did not want to antagonize Museveni by amplifying the long-standing suspicion that he was sympathetic to Besigye’s supporters. Odinga did not even allow press to cover his visit.

WHY M7, ODINGA ARE CLOSE

During launch of the University Fund, Odinga told the world how Museveni helped him during his 1990 escape from Kenya and eventual exile:

“President Museveni and I share close ties. The story of my life could have taken a different turn had he not been the President of Uganda at the time I was a political exile.”

Raila revealed that Museveni used to visit Kisumu where he launched a successful struggle to oust the dictatorships in Uganda.

“I escaped to Uganda through Lake Victoria, as Kenya security officers were pursuing me. I changed names in the course of my escape, entering Uganda as ‘Joe Wadeya” said an emotional Odinga.

Upon arrival in Uganda, Raila noted, he received a message from President Museveni that he would be given protection and enough funds to facilitate his travel to a country of his choice.

“I got my documents of travel in the name of Haji Omar and I thank President Museveni for this.”

With Odinga, Mwai Kibaki, Arap Moi, Kagame, Joseph Kabila, Salva Kiir and Jakaya kikwete on his side, Museveni could be first President for the East African Community, leaving Besigye overwhelmingly isolated and politically impotent.

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